Keith Law is No Albert Einstein

I thought I was done.

Truth be told, I had already pulled the Road to 90 Fan-tasy Tour Bus into the garage and began the winterization process.

Then I got an e-mail from Keith Law.

You remember Keith Law, right?  He’s the ESPN employee who graduated from Harvard and received his MBA from Carnegie Mellon.  He’s also the guy who back in April wrote that Cleveland was the flavor of the week.  He continued: “I had Cleveland finishing in fourth this year at 67-95, and I still think the Indians are a lot closer to that than they are to a 90-win season.

Naturally, as I was parking the bus in the garage I sent Keith Law an e-mail reminding him of his prediction and suggesting that he was WRONG.

Here is his pithy reply:  “Actually, they’re 8 games below .500 since I wrote that article, so I think most people would chalk that up as a correct prediction. And I held to the prediction when they improved from 12-4 at the time I wrote the article to 30-15 – since which point they are, of course, 50-65, and have been outscored by 119 runs.”

Keith Law should be a politician; he works baseball numbers the way President Obama works unemployment rates.  Unfortunately, numbers (unlike reporters) don’t lie.

Keith Law predicted 4th place for the Tribe.  They will finish in 2nd.  And though it is of little consolation, 2nd place is TWICE AS GOOD as 4th place.  Math.

Keith Law also predicted a final record of 67-95.  That’s two full games lower than they finished in 2010.  Clearly Law saw the Indians going from bad to worse.  But he was WRONG. They have already won 80 games with one game left to play.  That’s 13 games more than he predicted or 20% HIGHER than he guessed. Math.

And despite his best efforts to belittle the Indians – due to their inability to maintain a winning percentage of .667 when their record was 30-15 (only two teams in all of baseball are currently over .600) – here is what ESPN says about the Indians during their last week of baseball:  “In the last full week and final homestand of the season, the Indians showed they won’t go gently into the night. Playing nine games in seven days, the Tribe went 6-3…”. Crazy, right?  What is that anyway, a .667 wining percentage? Huh.

Anyway, despite his fine education and experience in the baseball world, Keith Law is and was wrong… whether he accepts it or not.  It happens.  And hey, buddy (can you call a Harvard grad buddy?), you are still welcome on the Road to 90 bandwagon next year… and you have my word we won’t hold your weak math skills against you.



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3 Responses to “Keith Law is No Albert Einstein”

  1. Gordie Howe Says:

    I went to Harvard, you can call me “buddy,” buddy.

  2. Bob the math guy Says:

    Interesting math that Law used. He used the fact that since his prediciton they went 50-65 as some proof that his prediction was correct. But the thing is–his PREDICTION at that point was that they would be 37-78 for the rest of the season. So he predicted 0.322 for the remainder of the season and in reality they played 0.435. Not sure how anyone could say that their prediciton was correct when it was so far off.

  3. exeqnation Says:

    Bob, I could not agree more. How do you get through Harvard and Carnegie-Mellon with such shoddy math skills? Oh wait, didn’t Al Gore graduate from Harvard? He had problems understanding numbers also. That’s a shame.

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